An Inexorable Split In The United Methodist Church?

I was born into and raised in the Christian Community of Believers at the First Presbyterian Church of LaGrange, GA. Shortly after Andrea and I graduated from LaGrange College (a Methodist-affliated liberal arts institution) and were married in June 1960, I joined the United Methodist Church in Chapel Hill, NC. I have remained in the UMC because I resonate with most aspects of its theology and because I like the denominational emphasis on social action, a feature of the Methodist Church since its founding under the influence of John Wesley in the late 18th Century.

I characterize myself as a professing, albeit struggling, Judeo-Christian.

A Primer for non-Methodists (and some Methodists)

The UMC is organized at the international level. In the US, each state has one or more Annual Conferences presided over by a Bishop, always an ordained United Methodist minister. Each Annual Conference is divided into Districts, each headed by a District Superintendent, also an ordained minister. Individual churches, with one or more ordained ministers, compose each district. Each district sends it ministers and an equivalent number of lay persons to the meeting of the Annual Conference each year. These meetings take care of conference business and appointment of ministers to the local churches. The Bishop, with input from his council (District Superintendents, some ministers, and some laity), appoints ministers to the local churches.

Money, from collections and other sources, flows from the local churches to the Districts to the Annual Conferences and then to the General conference.

Every four years, the Bishops and elected delegates (ministers and laity) from each Annual Conference in the US and worldwide meet in an a General Conference, which elects new bishops and assigns all bishops to Annual Conferences.

The UMC is governed theologically and administratively through the Book of Discipline. All  ministers, at their ordination, swear to uphold the Book or Disciple, which can only be modified at a General Conference.

The Divisive Issue

The Book of Discipline states that homosexuality is incompatible with the teachings of Christ.

In the US, many local churches nevertheless welcome homosexuals into fellowship and membership. (This policy may not be a feature of many African churches.) Some US churches are more active in this welcoming endeavor ("Reconciling Congregations") than others. The idea is that all humans have sinned and deserve God's forgiveness and grace.

Importantly, the Book of Discipline states that no practicing homosexual may be ordained as a minister, and no United Methodist minister can officiate at a marriage or union ceremony between practicing homosexuals.

These prohibitions formed a focal point of intense discussion at the last General Conference in 2012; but, no changes were made to the Book of Discipline. At that conference and subsequently, a few Bishops have said practicing homosexuals (and LGBT persons in general) should be admitted to full fellowship including ordination. Many local ministers feel the same way. The problem is that all have sworn to uphold and abide by the Book of Discipline.

With the protean social changes underway vis-a-vis homosexuality, the issue is sure to elicit even more intense controversy at the next General Conference in 2016.

The US UMC split over slavery in the period leading to the Civil War. Administrative unity was reestablished relatively recently. We avoided a split over the issue of full ordination for women and appointment of women as bishops.

My assessment is that the US Southeastern and African Annual Conferences will not change their opinion on homosexuality. Other conferences will view changing the Book of Discipline with respect to homosexuality (1) will reflect a truer theological understanding about the Biblical prohibitions and (2) will pose a question of survival for the core of the denomination.

With strong opposition from the Southeastern and African Annual Conferences, the Book of Discipline will not be changed at the 2016 General Conference. I will be surprised if the UMC splits over the homosexuality issue between the 2016 and 2020 General Conferences.

I expect a ferocious debate about homosexuality at the 2020 General Conference. If the Book of Discipline is changed in 2020, I fully expect the US Southeastern and African General Conferences to split from the UMC to form independent versions of the Methodist Church. If the Book of Discipline is not changed in 2020, I fully expect many Annual Conferences outside of Africa and the US Southeast to split away to form their own version of the Methodist Church.

That is, baring the miracle of reconciliation, I see the split as inexorable. In my opinion, the split should come sooner rather than later: Until the Book of Discipline is changed, we are disenfranchising many of our brothers and sisters in Christ.